Monday, August 30, 2010

Predicting the Playoff Teams in the National League


With the season winding down, and the calendar turning to September, it's time to start predicting the final four teams in each league. First, let's look at the National League.

NL West: San Diego Padres
The Padres have the best record in the NL, and currently lead the NL West. They have a 4.5 game lead over the Giants. The schedule down the road will be tough, as they play the Rockies twice, the Dodgers twice, the Giants once, the Cardinals once, Cincinnati once, and the Cubs once. Only the Cubs, who they close out the season with, are below the .500 mark. The Padres have a very good bullpen, and their starters have been solid this season. If Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Ludwick can power the offense, the Padres pitching can lead them deep in the playoffs.

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are another surprise team in the NL, and have proven that they can definitely stick in the playoff race. They currently lead the Cardinals by an astounding 7 games, considering the fact that the last time the two teams met, the Cardinals swept the Reds. The Reds have an easier schedule than the Padres do, as in September they play the Cardinals, the Rockies, the Pirates, the Diamondbacks, the Astros (twice), the Brewers, and the Padres. The Pirates, Diamondbacks and Astros are all below .500, and those three teams account for about 43% of the team's games in September. The only questions I have about the Reds concern the health of Edinson Volquez, and how the bullpen holds up. Rookie Aroldis Champan has just been called up and will likely pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the year, and is postseason eligible. In his first start, he reached 102 MPH. The offense led by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips should be solid.

NL East: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are 3.5 games up on the defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have done this with a combination of solid hitting and good pitching. Rookie Jason Heyward has been on a tear late in the season here for Atlanta, struggling with some injury issues in the middle of the year. Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus are on the DL, and the team has acquired 1B Derrek Lee. Tim Hudson has been phenomenal for the Braves this season, with 15 wins and an impressive ERA of 2.24. In September, the Braves will take on the Mets (once, but finish up a series against them the first two days of September), the Marlins (twice), St. Louis, Washington (twice), and then what could be a crucial series against the Phillies in the second to last week of the season. I think the Braves definitely have the talent to win this division.

NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
The Giants currently are behind the Phillies by 1.5 games, but I think their pitching will lead them to the postseason this year. Tim Lincecum obviously hasn't been himself in August (0-5, 7.82 ERA), but I think Lincecum can bring himself back in September. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez also give them a three-deep rotation that can match any in the NL. Buster Posey is showing how much of an impact he can make in the majors (a big one, 9 HR and 40 RBI in the last two months) and is really giving the Giants an offensive force. If the offense holds up, the Giants could make the playoffs. The schedule, as it is for most of the NL West teams, will be tough due to the fact that the 4 top teams play each other almost constantly down the stretch in September. They play LA twice, Colorado, San Diego, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Chicago. The last three aren't as strong, but Arizona had a great August and the Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, a very dangerous combo.

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