2010 AL West Season Preview

The American League West should be a very close division in 2010, with all four teams having a legitimate shot at winning the division. I have the A's finishing first with the Angels in 4th, but the general consensus seems to have the four teams in the exact reverse order.

1. Oakland A's

Oakland will be relying on pitching and defense in the 2010 season. The outfield defense, with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, will have three legitimate center fielders playing at the same time, and should track down a ton of fly balls. Sweeney also was among the leaders in outfield assists in 2009 with 11. Around the infield, Mark Ellis and Cliff Pennington are above average at 2B and SS, and Kevin Kouzmanoff and Daric Barton are sure-handed at the corner infield positions. The A's overall defense should be among the best in the league. The pitching staff has a few question marks, but also has much more depth than last year. At age 22, Brett Anderson should be the staff ace. Anderson had an ERA of 4.06 as a rookie in 2009, but in the second half, his ERA dropped to 3.48 with an outstanding 4.3 K/BB ratio. Fellow rookie Dallas Braden had a 3.89 ERA in 22 starts in 2009. Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer are both returning from injuries, but have been All-Stars in recent years. 24 year old Gio Gonzalez will be the #5 starter, and averaged 9.9K/9 IP as a rookie. Also in the mix is Trevor Cahill, who won 10 games as a 21 year old rookie in 2009. The A's bullpen should also be very strong, led by 2009 Rookie-of-the-Year Andrew Bailey, and also including Michael Wuertz, Joey Devine, Brad Ziegler, and Craig Breslow. Offense is the big question mark for the A's. The A's finished 9th in the league in scoring last year, and need continued offensive improvement from Barton, Suzuki, and Sweeney. If the players at the Major League level don't hit, the A's have some outstanding prospects at the AAA level who should be ready later this year, including 1B Chris Carter, who has slugged 67 HR over the last two years, and OF Michael Taylor, who hit .320 with 20 HR and 21 SB last year between AA and AAA.

2. Texas Rangers

After winning 85 games in 2009, the Rangers are looking for their first playoff berth since 1999. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rangers had the 4th best pitching staff in AL, as measured by ERA+, and only the 9th best offense. The team had great hitting from 2B Ian Kinsler, OF Nelson Cruz, and 3B Michael Young, but had disappointing seasons from 1B Chris Davis, CF Josh Hamilton, and their young catchers Jarrod Saltalamachhia and Taylor Teagarden. The Rangers are looking for rebound seasons from these players, as well as contributions from newcomers Vladimir Guerrero, Ryan Garko. The pitching staff has added SP Rich Harden (from the Cubs) and Colby Lewis, who had an incredible 8.0 K/BB over the last two years in Japan. Harden and Lewis will join Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, and Brandon McCarthy in the rotation. The Rangers have great pitching depth, as Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, and Matt Harrison should all be ready to contribute. The bullpen is led by closer Frank Francisco and setup man Neftali Feliz, who finished 2009 with a 1.74 ERA and 39K/8BB in 31 IP.

3. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners were the most improved team in the Majors in 2009, improving by 24 wins to a record of 85-77. In the offseason, the team added All-Stars SP Cliff Lee and IF Chone Figgins, and the Mariners should be contenders once again in 2010. Like the A's, the Mariners are built around pitching and defense, but have a questionable offense. The defense is led by Frankiln Gutierrez, who is probably the best CF in baseball right now, even if the Gold Glove voters haven't realized it yet. RF Ichiro Suzuki and SS Jack Wilson are also excellent defensive players. Offensively, the Mariners were last in Runs Scored in the AL in 2009, and they lost their leading HR hitter from last year, Russell Branyan, to free agency. The offense will be boosted by the addition of Figgins, as well as 1B Casey Kotchman and OF Milton Bradley, but it is hard to see the Mariners even achieving an average offense. The starting pitching is led by two of the best pitchers in the AL, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. But Lee will be on the DL until at least May, and the rest of the rotation, Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Doug Fister, is shaky. In the bullpen, closer David Aardsma had 38 Saves, but still averages 5 BB/9, which is too high for long-term success. Brandon League may end up taking Aardsma's position as the season progresses.

4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels have won the AL West for three straight seasons, but lost four key players from the 2009 team in IF Chone Figgins, OF Vladimir Guerrero, SP John Lackey, and RP Darren Oliver. That group was replaced with OF Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Piniero, and RP Fernando Rodney. In addition to Piniero, the starting pitching includes Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Scott Kazmir, although Kazmir is already on the DL. This group does not have a pair of aces like the Mariners or the upside and depth of the Rangers and Athletics, and I think will be a disappointment for the Angels this year. The closer will be Brian Fuentes, with Fernando Rodney, Scott Shields, and Kevin Jepsen pitching the 7th and 8th innings. Offensively, the Angels finished 2nd in the AL in runs scored in 2009, but had career years from four players - Kendry Morales, Torii Hunter, Erick Aybar, and Juan Rivera. I think they will have a hard time scoring runs as they did last year, and will probably finish in the middle of the pack offensively.

Summary

All 4 teams in the AL West are capable of winning the division. The A's have a lot of question marks, especially offensively, but also have a wealth of talent at the AAA level that should be able to contribute if needed. The Rangers have a good mix of offense and pitching, although their two most promising pitchers, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, haven't been given important roles yet. Seattle may have the two top pitchers in the division in Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but has a weak offense and will be without Lee for a month. The Angels always seem to find a way to contend, but it will be tough this year without Figgins, Lackey, and Guerrero. All four teams will probably win between 75 and 85 games this year, and I am picking the A's to finally break the Angels' string of division titles.