Predicting the Playoff Teams in the National League

With the season winding down, and the calendar turning to September, it's time to start predicting the final four teams in each league. First, let's look at the National League.

NL West: San Diego Padres
The Padres have the best record in the NL, and currently lead the NL West. They have a 4.5 game lead over the Giants. The schedule down the road will be tough, as they play the Rockies twice, the Dodgers twice, the Giants once, the Cardinals once, Cincinnati once, and the Cubs once. Only the Cubs, who they close out the season with, are below the .500 mark. The Padres have a very good bullpen, and their starters have been solid this season. If Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Ludwick can power the offense, the Padres pitching can lead them deep in the playoffs.

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are another surprise team in the NL, and have proven that they can definitely stick in the playoff race. They currently lead the Cardinals by an astounding 7 games, considering the fact that the last time the two teams met, the Cardinals swept the Reds. The Reds have an easier schedule than the Padres do, as in September they play the Cardinals, the Rockies, the Pirates, the Diamondbacks, the Astros (twice), the Brewers, and the Padres. The Pirates, Diamondbacks and Astros are all below .500, and those three teams account for about 43% of the team's games in September. The only questions I have about the Reds concern the health of Edinson Volquez, and how the bullpen holds up. Rookie Aroldis Champan has just been called up and will likely pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the year, and is postseason eligible. In his first start, he reached 102 MPH. The offense led by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips should be solid.

NL East: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are 3.5 games up on the defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have done this with a combination of solid hitting and good pitching. Rookie Jason Heyward has been on a tear late in the season here for Atlanta, struggling with some injury issues in the middle of the year. Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus are on the DL, and the team has acquired 1B Derrek Lee. Tim Hudson has been phenomenal for the Braves this season, with 15 wins and an impressive ERA of 2.24. In September, the Braves will take on the Mets (once, but finish up a series against them the first two days of September), the Marlins (twice), St. Louis, Washington (twice), and then what could be a crucial series against the Phillies in the second to last week of the season. I think the Braves definitely have the talent to win this division.

NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
The Giants currently are behind the Phillies by 1.5 games, but I think their pitching will lead them to the postseason this year. Tim Lincecum obviously hasn't been himself in August (0-5, 7.82 ERA), but I think Lincecum can bring himself back in September. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez also give them a three-deep rotation that can match any in the NL. Buster Posey is showing how much of an impact he can make in the majors (a big one, 9 HR and 40 RBI in the last two months) and is really giving the Giants an offensive force. If the offense holds up, the Giants could make the playoffs. The schedule, as it is for most of the NL West teams, will be tough due to the fact that the 4 top teams play each other almost constantly down the stretch in September. They play LA twice, Colorado, San Diego, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Chicago. The last three aren't as strong, but Arizona had a great August and the Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, a very dangerous combo.

Taking a Look at the NL West After the Trade Deadline

After the trade deadline in baseball, we can now take a much more accurate look at the division races. We'll start with the NL West, where the Padres have surprisingly taken over the division, with the Giants, Rockies, and Dodgers not far behind. The Diamondbacks have had a very disappointing season, and were sellers at the deadline.

1. San Diego Padres (64-46)
The Padres have been the surprise of the National League, and boast the best record in the NL. Adrian Gonzalez has been very good for the Padres, leading them in all three offensive categories (BA, HR, RBI). The staff has been led by Mat Latos, who also leads the team in each of the three major pitching categories (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts). At the deadline, the Padres acquired OF Ryan Ludwick (from the Cardinals) and SS Miguel Tejada (from the Orioles). I think the Ludwick trade was a great move for San Diego, as they are able to provide a solid hitter behind Adrian Gonzalez. However, the Tejada move doesn't really do much for the Padres. Tejada played third in Baltimore, a position held by Chase Headley, and the SS spot is taken by Everth Cabrera. Tejada is not an everyday starter and clearly doesn't have his old hitting ability (he's hitting just .267 with 8 homers this year), so I don't see where he can help the Padres. Overall, the Padres will need their pitching to stay consistent to maintain their division lead in the the tight NL West.

2. San Francisco Giants (63-49)
Coming into the season, everyone knew that the Giants pitching would be fantastic, as their staff contains Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito. But the biggest question mark about San Francisco surrounded their offense. Who would be their big hitter? Aubrey Huff had been brought in, and Pablo Sandoval showed promise last year. Huff leads the team in HR's with 20, but Sandoval has really gone downhill. He's hitting .263 with 6 HRs. Buster Posey, the rookie catcher for the Giants, has been sensational, hitting .342 with 8 HRs in 61 games in the majors. Another surprise has come from Andres Torres, an outfielder who is hitting .289 with 11 HRs and 45 RBI. The Giants added bullpen pieces at the deadline (Ramon Ramirez from Boston, and Javier Lopez from Baltimore), but many expected them to heavily go after a big bat. With Adam Dunn being placed on waivers by the Nationals, expect the Giants to go after him.

3. Colorado Rockies (58-53)
The Rockies have had a decent season, but are in third in the NL West coming into August. Carlos Gonzalez is having a great year offensively for the Rockies, hitting .327 with 25 HRs and 77 RBI. The Rockies pitching was led in the first half by Ubaldo Jimenez, who threw a no-hitter earlier in the year and was one of the leading candidates for the Cy Young Award. However, after the All-Star break Jimenez has not pitched as well, which could be a cause for concern for Colorado, as they will definitely need the hard throwing righty down the stretch. The team did not make any moves at the deadline. The Rockies can definitely compete, but will need Jimenez, and a healthy Troy Tulowitzki to win this division.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers (58-54)
The Dodgers are probably the team in the division with the most question marks coming down the stretch. Is Manny healthy? Is GM Ned Coletti searching for his next waiver jackpot? The Dodgers have made back-to-back NLCS appearances, but they might not even make the playoffs this year. Andre Ethier started off the year very well, but has fallen after his batting practice injury to his hand earlier in the season. Matt Kemp has had disappointing numbers, especially when some thought this would be his breakout year. James Loney leads the team in RBI with 68. Young Clayton Kershaw is having a solid year, leading the team in all 3 major pitching categories (wins, ERA, strikeouts), and is showing signs of future greatness. Chad Billingsley has recently come on strong, and Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla have been decent. The biggest problem for LA has been the fifth starter spot, which they hope has been filled up with the acquisition of LHP Ted Lilly from Chicago along with IF Ryan Theriot (in exchange for IF Blake DeWitt and two minor leaguers). There are also rumors that the Dodgers have claimed Adam Dunn off of waivers. Overall, I'm not sure if the Dodgers have enough in the tank for a run at the postseason.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (44-69)
The Diamondbacks were thought by many to be ahead of San Diego coming into the year, and maybe even a wild card contended. However, the team has struggled this season with pitching issues, especially in the bullpen. Kelly Johnson has been a good pickup offensively at second base, providing them with a good hitter, and Chris Young was an All-Star. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds have had decent years. On the pitching side, the year has just been miserable for Arizona. Brandon Webb still has not returned, and Dan Haren was traded to the Angels. Edwin Jackson, who hurled a no-hitter against Tampa Bay earlier in the year was traded to the White Sox in exchange for RHP Daniel Hudson, who has been good in his first few starts in a D'Backs uniform. The bullpen has just been terrible, causing fits for D'Backs fans and coaches. The team traded away Haren (LAA), Jackson (CWS), closer Chad Qualls (TB), and C Chris Snyder (PIT). This has been a tough year for Arizona, and they are obviously out of contention this year.

So with the NL West done, stay tuned for a look at the NL Central this week!